Pursuing the desire for cattle or attacking the followers of heresy: A numerical analysis of different factors influencing strategies adopted in large group interactions involving nomads or holy war

Abstract

This thesis is a numerical analysis of factors which have influenced the strategies adopted in a sample of 120 large group interactions involving nomads or holy war in the period 1250 BCE to 1850 CE in parts of Afro-Eurasia. In the first two chapters, it establishes a basis for the limits of time and space applied to the sample, and places them in their wider context, as well as addressing issues of methodology arising from the use of a quantitative approach. It then draws on material from a range of disciplines to define and exemplify nomadism and holy war, before exploring a range of factors likely to be relevant to the strategies employed. These include matters pertaining to climate, agriculture, population and power, government, culture, religion, economics, warfare, and leadership. The broad pattern of events in each of the regions of the study is outlined, providing a context for the individual cases used in the sample. Issues of model-building are examined, and the database used for analysis, as developed in light of the prior analysis of factors, is presented. Initial analysis shows that the sample interactions are linked to periods of high activity of the El Ni?o Southern Ocean (ENSO) anomaly. They illustrate the already established pattern of climatically and culturally disadvantaged but militarily strong initiators against advantaged but militarily weaker respondent. Use of cavalry by the initiators is linked to the bioproductivity of their area. The assessments of Manoeuvre and Morale, rather than Material, are the main predictors of their level of advantage. Stepwise regression analysis of the database, supported by stability testing through analysis of random subsamples and bootstrapping, leads to the conclusion that initiator strategy and the outcome can be strongly explained (57% and 75% of variance, respectively) by the variables examined. In aggregate, the climate and geography variables; Holy War; other culture, economic and diplomacy variables and military variables are all of fairly similar significance in explaining the characteristics of the interactions. Analysis of a secondary database suggests that the model may be orientated towards nomad initiators with more aggressive policies which are more rapidly brought to a conclusion.