Risk of New York City’s Electric Power Networks Against Compound Extreme Floodings and Cyberattacks

Abstract

The growing frequency of extreme weather events and cyberattacks triggers the rise of compound cyber-physical threats where a cyberattacker targets critically stressed electricity generators and transmission lines during an extreme weather event. In this paper, we quantify the conditional probability of a cyberattack against electric power network components in the event of extreme flooding in the Manhattan Borough of New York City (NYC). Based on the first stage of a recently-proposed framework, a bilevel optimization problem represents the adversarial rationale of a cyberattacker. Our results reveal the risk profiles of electricity generators, transmission lines, and customers in Manhattan, by exploring the parameter space of the bilevel optimization problem through Monte Carlo simulations. We found that when imports from neighboring states are constrained under extreme flooding, the cyberattacker targets natural gas capacity in the NYC Metropolitan Area first, and then transmission lines connecting Manhattan to the NYC Metropolitan Area. The disruption can lead to power outages for more than 50% of Midtown Manhattan customers with high probability. Our analysis informs the design of mitigation and response strategies against compound extreme floodings and cyberattacks.