Influence of different historical best track databases on the assessed typhoon wind hazard for the coastal region of mainland China

Abstract

Historical best track databases (HBTDs) are used as the basis for developing the tropical cyclone (TC) track model. Different HBTDs may not be consistent and may report different TC parameters. The impact of such inconsistency on the developed TC track model and the estimated TC wind hazard is not entirely clear. In the present study, we developed TC track models for TC events originating from the western North Pacific (WNP) basin by using each of the three HBTDs from the China Meteorological Administration, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. The model developed is based on the beta-advection modelling approach. The developed TC track models are then employed to assess the TC wind hazard for sites in the coastal regions in mainland China. A quantitative comparison of the estimated T-year return period value of the annual maximum TC wind speed, vA-T, is presented using the developed track models. It is shown that vA-T obtained based on the TC model developed based on different HBTDs can differ as much as 6% for T equal to 50 and 100 years. This translates to a difference of about 12% in wind load for engineered structures and infrastructure systems subjected to TC wind loading.