An evaluation of the changing religious composition of the population of Northern Ireland

Abstract

It is customary to think of the population of Northern Ireland as being composed of one third Roman Catholics and two thirds Protestants. This convention should now be revised, however, because of the rapid growth of the number of Catholics in recent decades and evidence is presented to show that they made up slightly more than 38 per cent of the population in 1981. If this trend continues Catholics should eventually form a majority in Northern Ireland but trends can be deceptive; declining fertility and, in consequence, a lower rate of natural increase casts considerable doubt on the inevitability of an eventual Catholic majority.