| dc.contributor.author | Caffara, Amelia | |
| dc.contributor.author | Zottele, Fabio | |
| dc.contributor.author | Gleeson, Emily | |
| dc.contributor.author | Donnelly, Alison | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2015-10-05T09:49:38Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2015-10-05T09:49:38Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2014 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Amelia Caffara, Fabio Zottele, Emily Gleeson, Alison Donnelly, 'Spatial heterogeneity in the timing of birch budburst in response to future climate warming in Ireland', 4, International Journal of Biometeorology, 58, 2014 | |
| dc.description | In order to predict the impact of future climate warming on trees it is important to quantify the effect climate has on their development. Our understanding of the phenological response to environmental drivers has given rise to various mathematical models of the annual growth cycle of plants. These models simulate the timing of phenophases by quantifying the relationship between development and its triggers, typically temperature. In addition, other environmental variables have an important role in determining the timing of budburst. For example, photoperiod has been shown to have a strong influence on phenological events of a number of tree species, including Betula pubescens (birch). A recently developed model for birch (DORMPHOT), which integrates the effects of temperature and photoperiod on budburst, was applied to future temperature projections from a 19-member ensemble of regional climate simulations (on a 25km grid) generated as part of the ENSEMBLES project, to simulate the timing of birch budburst in Ireland each year up to the end of the present century. Gridded temperature time series data from the climate simulations were used as input to the DORMPHOT model to simulate future budburst timing. The results showed an advancing trend in the timing of birch budburst over most regions in Ireland up to 2100. Interestingly, this trend appeared greater in the northeast of the country than in the southwest where budburst is currently relatively early. These results could have implications for future forest planning, species distribution modeling, and the birch allergy season. | en |
| dc.language.iso | en | en |
| dc.publisher | Springer | en |
| dc.rights | Y | en |
| dc.subject | Budburst | en |
| dc.subject | Phenological modelling | en |
| dc.subject | Betula pubescens | en |
| dc.title | Spatial heterogeneity in the timing of birch budburst in response to future climate warming in Ireland | en |
| dc.type | journal article | en |
| dc.type.supercollection | edepositireland | |
| dc.contributor.corporatename | Université de Bourgogne. Centre de recherches de climatologie | en |
| dc.contributor.corporatename | Fondazione Edmund Mach. Technology Transfer Centre | en |
| dc.contributor.corporatename | Met Éireann | en |
| dc.contributor.corporatename | Trinity College (Dublin, Ireland). School of Natural Sciences | en |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s00484-013-0720-5 | |
| dc.rights.ecaccessrights | openAccess | |
| dc.relation.ispartofseriesdate | 2014 | en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseriesissue | 4 | en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseriestitle | International Journal of Biometeorology | en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseriesvolume | 58 | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2262/74720 | |
