An attitude diffusion model of the international clustering of political regimes

Abstract

On the basis of the relatively new and growing literature on the presence of spatial clustering and temporal waves of the spread of democracy in the world, this thesis sets out to make an inventory of the various theoretical explanations that are available to account for these phenomena and to investigate the extent to which a model based on the diffusion of individual attitudes, in combination with a cascading model of revolution, can be a potential explanation of these global and longterm patterns. Almost all existing explanations are entirely based on elite-level explanations of democratization. There is nevertheless no clear a priori reason to assume that the geographic clustering we observe cannot have been caused by mass-level attitudes and behavior. The argument is made that even if most transitions to democracy are in the end crucially dependent on decisions and actions by members of the elite, the role of public opinion cannot be ignored. Often elite members make decisions exactly because they are concerned with their popularity among the general population and at other times members of the elite actually lose their political position due to popular elections - increasingly common given the prevalence of 'electoral dictatorships', whereby the power-holders attempt to demonstrate their power to competitors through