Modelling of vehicular emissions and their potential environmental, health, and economic impacts
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DEY, SHREYA, Modelling of vehicular emissions and their potential environmental, health, and economic impacts, Trinity College Dublin.School of Engineering, 2019Download Item:
Abstract:
Road traffic is one of the greatest contributors to greenhouse gas and reducing it has become one of the main targets for sustainable transport policies. Analysis of the main factors influencing greenhouse gas emissions is essential for designing environmentally efficient strategies for road transport. On the other hand, air pollution has been associated with a series of health effects such as stroke, lung cancer, chronic and acute respiratory diseases, including asthma. Diesel vehicles are one of the major sources of two harmful air pollutants, PM2.5 and NOx. Reducing NOx emission levels and diesel use has become a prime concern since it was discovered that most of the diesel Euro 5 and Euro 6 passenger cars and light commercial vehicles are violating the NOx emission standards. The electrification of the transportation sector has become necessary considering the growth in transport demand, resulting greenhouse gas, urban air pollution and fossil fuel depletion. A considerable percentage of EU urban population is exposed to harmful levels of air pollution concentration. Ireland has a target to reduce the GHG emission levels by 30% in 2030 relative to 2005 levels, however, GHG levels are expected to increase. Moreover, the NOx emissions in Ireland have failed to meet the national emission ceiling target leading to serious health concerns. However, high NOx emission levels may or may not lead to high NOx concentration at the population exposure level.
This thesis comprehensively evaluates the potential environmental, financial and health impacts associated with the Irish road transport fleet and further, proposes a solution through a set of hypothetical policy introduction which can potentially mitigate the impacts and increase EV uptake and investigates the possible reduction in impacts from alternative traffic scenarios as a result of these policy interventions. Emission levels from road transport were estimated using COPERT 5 for the current and several future scenarios with the continuation of Business as Usual situation and from alternative scenarios. An uncertainty modelling of COPERT 5 was carried out through sensitivity analysis of COPERT input parameters. NOx and PM2.5 pollution at the population exposure level attributable to road transport emissions were modelled using OSPM for the current and future scenarios. Additionally, health impacts in terms of premature mortality incidences and Disability Adjusted Life Years attributable to long term exposure to NOx and PM2.5 were estimated using WHO?s burden of disease approach. The findings of this study indicate that emission levels from the future fleets are expected to increase under BaU scenarios due to the increase in car ownership levels and low uptake of alternative fuel and technology options. However, the emission levels can potentially be reduced with alternative fleet options as a result of additional policy measures. The results also revealed that Ireland?s air quality is good with respect to NOx and PM2.5 pollution when compared to WHO and EU recommended safe limits. Discrepancies between the concentrations recorded at the monitoring locations and the modelled values were observed. Although the overall air quality was found to be fair, the spatial variation of the pollution showed that some areas in Dublin city are exposed to significantly high levels of NOx and PM2.5 concentrations. The pollution levels and resulting health outcomes and financial damages are expected to increase, but, can be improved with the proposed alternative scenarios. The findings of this research not only provide policy makers with a timely and useful evaluation of the potential impacts of road transport fleet in Ireland but also sets an example of how controlling air pollution can be prioritised, compared to other policy interventions aimed at improving air quality and public health.
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Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
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APPROVED
Author: DEY, SHREYA
Sponsor:
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)Advisor:
Ghosh, BidishaPublisher:
Trinity College Dublin. School of Engineering. Disc of Civil Structural & Environmental EngType of material:
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