Post-conflict governments 1975-2004 : designing effective assistance

Abstract

Understanding the causes and consequences of internal conflict has become a priority for researchers in economics, international relations and political science over the past two decades. Conflict patterns have changed over this period, with the result that internal conflict has become the dominant conflict type, particularly in low-income countries. This thesis proposes that governments after internal conflict are particularly vulnerable, in several ways: vulnerable to relapses into conflict, to economic adversity, to internal political instability, and to political defeat because they fail to meet voter expectations. At least twenty per cent of all civil conflicts recur within the first four years after conflict has ended (Collier et al, 2006). Where post-conflict governments are operating in a new democracy, they are often operating in a climate of 'extreme electoral fluidity', characterised by ephemeral parties, weak voter loyalties, and limited experience of democratic process (Hagopian, 2007: 583, 585).