The Impact of Anocracy on Terrorism: A Mixed-Method Approach

Abstract

In this dissertation, the impact of anocracy on terrorism is examined. Intuitively, anocratic states or states with mixed regime features have been associated with greater terrorism, indicating that regime type has an important role to play in determining terrorism. However, the existing literature examining the impact of anocracy on terrorism has put forth mixed conclusions and therefore the link between regime type and the origins of terrorism remains ambiguous. Moreover, the operationalization of regime type has often included variables of violence. This is problematic as explaining terrorism in terms of the indicators that themselves involve the use of violence leads to the difficulty to separating cause from effect. This thesis aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of this linkage and also looks into the key external factors that moderate this relationship. It presents nuanced theoretical explanation for why anocracies might be more susceptible to terrorist violence, going beyond the simplistic Inverted-U hypothesis, provides a conceptualization of anocracy within a particular context, and analyzes its impact on both the state-sponsorship of terrorism as well as homegrown terrorist emergence. The thesis asks two simple research questions: Does anocracy determine the emergence of terrorism? If yes, then how exactly does an anocratic regime lead to terrorism? In order to answer these questions, the thesis combines quantitative theory-building process-tracing within a qualitative case-study on Pakistan as well as quantitative Large-N analysis, both exploring the causal mechanisms involved that link anocracy to terrorism as well as generalizing this relationship. The overall analysis shows that a country s regime type can be an important determinant of state-sponsorship of terrorism, in the presence of certain scope conditions, and that sponsorship has the potential to become a gateway to domestic or home-grown terrorism. Furthermore, key internal or external opportunities, especially contagion, can provide a strong impetus for terrorism. Lastly, the non-linear or Inverted-U relationship between anocracies and domestic terrorism is misplaced as it is the pre-existing violence in anocracies that drives terrorist group emergence.