The economic implications of peace in Ireland

Abstract

The cease-fire of August 1994, in Northern Ireland, has held for sufficiently long to raise the prospect of a permanent peace. Peace in Northern Ireland should be valued and cherished in its own right, because it restores to life, a normalcy that most other societies take for granted. But, it would be a mistake to view peace as offering a glorious opportunity for economic development. Instead, it would be more realistic to see the permanent end of political violence as one less constraint inhibiting the process of economic development in Northern Ireland. In the absence of the constraint that the Troubles imposed upon the Northern Ireland economy, the province's economic problems are slightly more tractable, but they continue, nevertheless, to be formidable. The two main economic problems facing Northern Ireland are those of high unemployment and industrial decline. This paper argues that in order to solve these problems, Northern Ireland will have to break free of a "dependency culture" that has vitiated its economic life for the past half-century. There are four facets to this dependency: fiscal; industrial; social; and educational. Any serious attempt to find a lasting solution to Northern Ireland's economic ills must, as a pre-condition, address these issues. Otherwise, a lasting peace will not be mirrored in greater prosperity.